1 bd · 1.0 ba ·
576 sqft ·
Built 1969
· Manufactured
· Active
· 241 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,119/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$236
Tax + insurance
−$75
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$235
Net cashflow
$573/mo
Annual
$6,877/yr
Cap rate
21.57%
Cash-on-cash
54.58%
DSCR
3.43
1% rule
2.49%
Cash to close
$12,600
Investor read
This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $45k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $573 ($7k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $45k).
It's been on market 241 days — a 12% lower offer ($40k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $40k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $311 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 79/100 on livability (#59 in OR, #2,084 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
Salem-Keizer SD 24J (urban): math 34% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #103 of 183 in OR (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Englewood Elementary School (321 students, 71% FRL); Parrish Middle School (670 students, 75% FRL); North Salem High School (2,239 students, 74% FRL) — zoned schools average 74% FRL vs 53% district-wide (21 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.7%/yr); 280 active listings in the ZIP; 39 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 44% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,591 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (716 in 5+ unit buildings).
Marion County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Cap rate 21.6% vs local median 2.9% in Salem — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 241 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
CashFlowRE · CFR-Q5NJV4A5GJ1BSJ
· Data 17 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29