704 Haven Pl #704

Tarpon Springs, FL 34689

$159,000D

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,015 sqft · Built 1975 · Condo · Active · 71 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,826/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$834
• Tax + insurance: −$265
• HOA: −$424
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$384
• Net cashflow: $-80/mo
• Annual: $-960/yr
• Cap rate: 5.69%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.16%
• DSCR: 0.90
• 1% rule: 1.15%
• Cash to close: $44,520

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $159k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-80 ($-960/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $147k (7.3% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $159k).
• It's been on market 71 days — a 6% lower offer ($149k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $147k (7.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#502 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Pinellas (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #31 of 73 in FL (top 42%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Tarpon Springs Elementary School (math 57% / reading 41%, grade D, #1,134 of 2,144 statewide, top 54%, 506 students, 80% FRL); Tarpon Springs Middle School (math 59% / reading 61%, grade B, #135 of 571 statewide, top 24%, 644 students, 50% FRL); Tarpon Springs High School (math 30% / reading 47%, grade F, #321 of 667 statewide, top 49%, 1,139 students, 46% FRL).
• Watch-outs: HOA is 23% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.2%/yr); 404 active listings in the ZIP; 24 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,676 units permitted in Pinellas County in 2024 (1,422 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Pinellas County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→28/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 3.3% in Tarpon Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 71 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 7% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?