2 bd · 1.0 ba ·
1,064 sqft ·
Built 1946
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 72 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,044/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$210
Tax + insurance
−$45
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$219
Net cashflow
$571/mo
Annual
$6,846/yr
Cap rate
23.41%
Cash-on-cash
61.13%
DSCR
3.72
1% rule
2.61%
Cash to close
$11,199
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $40k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $571 ($7k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $40k).
It's been on market 72 days — a 6% lower offer ($38k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $38k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
In year one you build about $2k of equity ($277 loan paydown + $1k appreciation (3.1% local appreciation)).
Location reads 66/100 on livability (#76 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A-; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
Bicentennial Union High School District (4515) (rural): math 0% / reading 11% proficiency, ranked #448 of 501 in AZ (top 89%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
Zoned schools: Salome High School (math 10% / reading 10%, grade F, #298 of 381 statewide, top 90%, 126 students, 80% FRL).
Watch-outs: built in 1946 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: 136 active listings in the ZIP; 92 units permitted in La Paz County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
La Paz County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $5k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
At projected returns (3.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 23.4% vs local median 4.3% in Salome — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 72 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1946 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
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· Data 1 day agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29