2 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,516 sqft ·
Built 1910
· MultiFamily
· Active
· 65 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,426/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$629
Tax + insurance
−$313
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$509
Net cashflow
$975/mo
Annual
$11,699/yr
Cap rate
16.05%
Cash-on-cash
34.85%
DSCR
2.55
1% rule
2.02%
Cash to close
$33,572
Investor read
This is a 2 × 2-bed/1.0-bath units multifamily listed at $120k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $975 ($12k/yr) — positive. Per door: $487/mo.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $120k).
It's been on market 65 days — a 6% lower offer ($113k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $113k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
In year one you build about $13k of equity ($829 loan paydown + $12k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
Location reads 60/100 on livability (#956 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
Niagara Falls City School District (urban): math 26% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #578 of 590 in NY (top 98%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price; built in 1910 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.8%/yr); 164 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 56% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 167 units permitted in Niagara County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Niagara County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
3 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $42k; list at $120k implies a 182% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Cap rate 16.0% vs local median 7.7% in Niagara Falls — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
At $2,426/mo this rent would consume 84% of the median local household income ($35k/yr) (locally 954% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 65 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
Built in 1910 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
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