140 Hunter Lake Dr Unit G

Oldsmar, FL 34677

$174,945F

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 915 sqft · Built 1987 · Condo · Active · 31 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,643/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$917
• Tax + insurance: −$393
• HOA: −$700
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$345
• Net cashflow: $-713/mo
• Annual: $-8,556/yr
• Cap rate: 1.86%
• Cash-on-cash: -15.84%
• DSCR: 0.30
• 1% rule: 0.94%
• Cash to close: $48,985

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $175k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-713 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $173k (1.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $164k (6.1% below list).
• It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($170k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $164k (6.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#49 in FL, #908 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, commute A; Watch: amenities D-.
• Pinellas (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #31 of 73 in FL (top 42%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Forest Lakes Elementary School (math 74% / reading 73%, grade A, #260 of 2,144 statewide, top 13%, 498 students, 36% FRL); Joseph L. Carwise Middle School (math 66% / reading 57%, grade B+, #124 of 571 statewide, top 22%, 1,098 students, 38% FRL); East Lake High School (math 44% / reading 65%, grade C-, #138 of 667 statewide, top 21%, 2,286 students, 23% FRL) — zoned schools average 33% FRL vs 48% district-wide (15 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 63% at this address vs 51% district-wide (+12 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Pinellas average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; HOA is 43% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.6%/yr); 290 active listings in the ZIP; 20 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,676 units permitted in Pinellas County in 2024 (1,422 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Pinellas County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 4 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→28/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 1.9% vs local median 2.7% in Oldsmar — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?