3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
876 sqft ·
Built 1954
· SingleFamily
· Pending
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,359/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$551
Tax + insurance
−$219
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$285
Net cashflow
$304/mo
Annual
$3,647/yr
Cap rate
9.77%
Cash-on-cash
12.41%
DSCR
1.55
1% rule
1.29%
Cash to close
$29,400
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $105k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $304 ($4k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $105k).
Only 0 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $726 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
Cahokia CUSD 187 (suburban): math 3% / reading 5% proficiency, ranked #864 of 919 in IL (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 85% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Zoned schools: Cahokia High School (math 8% / reading 2%, grade F, #614 of 693 statewide, top 95%, 845 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 85% district-wide (85 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
Watch-outs: built in 1954 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: 153 active listings in the ZIP; 25 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 783 units permitted in St. Clair County in 2024 (378 in 5+ unit buildings).
St. Clair County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
Current owner paid $28k; list at $105k implies a 275% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $29k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 9.8% vs local median 13.6% in Cahokia Heights — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.
At $1,359/mo this rent would consume 48% of the median local household income ($34k/yr) (locally 729% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Questions for listing agent
Built in 1954 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-Q6K820CWC6W4KM
· Data 1 week agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29