Willow Plan

Indiantown, FL 34956

$394,990D-

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,240 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 28 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,021/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,209
• Tax + insurance: −$769
• HOA: −$217
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$634
• Net cashflow: $-808/mo
• Annual: $-9,698/yr
• Cap rate: 4.18%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.55%
• DSCR: 0.66
• 1% rule: 0.72%
• Cash to close: $117,960

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $395k. Condition is rated excellent.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-808 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $304k (22.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $302k (23.5% below list).
• It's been on market 28 days — a 2% lower offer ($389k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $302k (23.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $31k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $28k appreciation (6.7% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#829 in FL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Martin (suburban): math 52% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #24 of 73 in FL (top 33%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Warfield Elementary School (math 22% / reading 19%, grade F, #2,094 of 2,144 statewide, top 98%, 686 students, 79% FRL); Indiantown Middle School (math 42% / reading 29%, grade F, #414 of 571 statewide, top 73%, 646 students, 75% FRL); South Fork High School (math 36% / reading 48%, grade F, #275 of 667 statewide, top 42%, 1,810 students, 51% FRL) — zoned schools average 68% FRL vs 41% district-wide (27 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 33% at this address vs 52% district-wide (-20 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Martin average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: 232 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 107d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 737 units permitted in Martin County in 2024 (167 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Martin County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$49k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• At $3,021/mo this rent would consume 63% of the median local household income ($58k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.