Willow Plan

Indiantown, FL 34956

$394,990D-

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,240 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 340 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,960/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,186
• Tax + insurance: −$761
• HOA: −$217
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$622
• Net cashflow: $-826/mo
• Annual: $-9,915/yr
• Cap rate: 4.11%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.81%
• DSCR: 0.65
• 1% rule: 0.71%
• Cash to close: $116,724

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $395k. Condition is rated excellent.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-826 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $297k (24.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $296k (25.1% below list).
• It's been on market 340 days — a 12% lower offer ($348k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $296k (25.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $31k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $28k appreciation (6.7% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#829 in FL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Martin (suburban): math 52% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #24 of 73 in FL (top 33%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: 135 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 737 units permitted in Martin County in 2024 (167 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Martin County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$49k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.1% vs local median 10.9% in Indiantown — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 340 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?