518 Keller St E

Lehigh Acres, FL 33974

$379,900F

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,961 sqft · Built 2026 · Land · Active · 53 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,189/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,992
• Tax + insurance: −$633
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$460
• Net cashflow: $-896/mo
• Annual: $-10,754/yr
• Cap rate: 3.46%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.11%
• DSCR: 0.55
• 1% rule: 0.58%
• Cash to close: $106,372

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $380k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-896 ($-11k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $250k (34.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $219k (42.4% below list).
• It's been on market 53 days — a 3% lower offer ($369k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $219k (42.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $41k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $38k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#826 in FL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, employment D+, amenities F.
• Lee (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #42 of 73 in FL (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Mirror Lakes Elementary School (math 48% / reading 45%, grade D-, #1,223 of 2,144 statewide, top 57%, 1,228 students, 68% FRL); Oak Hammock Middle School (math 43% / reading 41%, grade D-, #340 of 571 statewide, top 61%, 1,563 students, 56% FRL); East Lee County High School (math 18% / reading 29%, grade F, #533 of 667 statewide, top 80%, 1,896 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools at 62% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-4.7%/yr); 2476 active listings in the ZIP; 26 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 15,411 units permitted in Lee County in 2024 (4,686 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lee County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $22k; list at $380k implies a 1627% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$65k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→30/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 3.5% vs local median 4.7% in Lehigh Acres — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($72k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 53 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 42% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.