2 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,360 sqft ·
Built 1990
· SingleFamily
· Pending
· 267 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,411/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$656
Tax + insurance
−$280
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$296
Net cashflow
$179/mo
Annual
$2,144/yr
Cap rate
8.65%
Cash-on-cash
8.40%
DSCR
1.37
1% rule
1.13%
Cash to close
$35,000
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $125k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $179 ($2k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $125k).
It's been on market 267 days — a 12% lower offer ($110k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $110k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
In year one you build about $8k of equity ($864 loan paydown + $7k appreciation (5.8% local appreciation)).
Location reads 61/100 on livability (#1,012 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
Los Fresnos CISD (suburban): math 34% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #444 of 826 in TX (top 54%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Los Fresnos El (math 37% / reading 47%, grade F, #1,335 of 4,322 statewide, top 33%, 561 students, 76% FRL); Liberty Memorial Middle (math 29% / reading 37%, grade F, #930 of 1,662 statewide, top 57%, 717 students, 88% FRL); Los Fresnos H S (math 41% / reading 55%, grade D, #571 of 1,632 statewide, top 36%, 3,272 students, 82% FRL) — zoned schools average 82% FRL vs 43% district-wide (39 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
Market conditions: 233 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,326 units permitted in Cameron County in 2024 (503 in 5+ unit buildings).
Cameron County population projected at +3% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (19%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
At projected returns (5.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 267 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
CashFlowRE · CFR-Q7DE70C1EN0WSM
· Data 4 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29