525 NE 159th St

Golden Glades, FL 33162

$445,000B-

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,680 sqft · Built 1940 · MultiFamily · Active · 48 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $6,584/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,334
• Tax + insurance: −$726
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,383
• Net cashflow: $2,142/mo
• Annual: $25,700/yr
• Cap rate: 12.07%
• Cash-on-cash: 20.63%
• DSCR: 1.92
• 1% rule: 1.48%
• Cash to close: $124,600

Investor read

• This is a 2 × 2-bed/1.5-bath units multifamily listed at $445k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($26k/yr) — positive. Per door: $1k/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($7k rent vs $445k).
• It's been on market 48 days — a 3% lower offer ($432k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $432k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#281 in FL, #4,513 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing B+, health & safety B+; Watch: employment D, amenities F.
• Miami-Dade (suburban): math 45% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #40 of 73 in FL (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.6%/yr); 286 active listings in the ZIP; 10,051 units permitted in Miami-Dade County in 2024 (7,758 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Miami-Dade County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $40k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $64k; list at $445k implies a 595% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $125k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→28/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 12.1% vs local median 3.5% in Golden Glades — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $6,584/mo this rent would consume 130% of the median local household income ($61k/yr) (locally 2509% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 48 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.