6 bd · 2.0 ba ·
3,036 sqft ·
Built 1900
· MultiFamily
· Active
· 47 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$3,241/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$551
Tax + insurance
−$275
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$681
Net cashflow
$1,735/mo
Annual
$20,819/yr
Cap rate
26.88%
Cash-on-cash
73.53%
DSCR
4.27
1% rule
3.09%
Cash to close
$29,400
Investor read
This is a 3 × 2-bed/?-bath units multifamily listed at $105k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($21k/yr) — positive. Per door: $578/mo.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $105k).
It's been on market 47 days — a 3% lower offer ($102k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $102k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
In year one you build about $6k of equity ($726 loan paydown + $5k appreciation (4.9% local appreciation)).
Location reads 70/100 on livability (#426 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
Dunkirk City School District (town): math 30% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #575 of 590 in NY (top 98%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 65% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: 71 active listings in the ZIP; 127 units permitted in Chautauqua County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Chautauqua County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $7k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
At projected returns (4.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $29k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 26.9% vs local median 7.4% in Dunkirk — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 47 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
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· Data 9 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29