1 bd · 3.0 ba ·
500 sqft ·
Built 1925
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 2 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,164/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$786
Tax + insurance
−$119
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$244
Net cashflow
$14/mo
Annual
$167/yr
Cap rate
6.40%
Cash-on-cash
0.40%
DSCR
1.02
1% rule
0.78%
Cash to close
$41,972
Investor read
This is a 1-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $14 ($167/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $116k (22.4% below list).
Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
Recommended offer: $116k (22.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 77/100 on livability (#206 in FL, #3,179 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Highlands Grove Elementary School (math 69% / reading 59%, grade B, #552 of 2,144 statewide, top 26%, 731 students, 36% FRL); Lakeland Highlands Middle School (math 56% / reading 52%, grade B-, #196 of 571 statewide, top 36%, 1,265 students, 41% FRL); Tenoroc High School (math 12% / reading 25%, grade F, #568 of 667 statewide, top 85%, 1,127 students, 63% FRL).
Watch-outs: built in 1925 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: Rents flat; 164 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
3 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for listing agent
Built in 1925 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-Q7QZCX5HN8VAYP
· Data 8 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29