15547 Highway 123

Hagarville, AR 72839

$55,000B

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,248 sqft · Built 1991 · SingleFamily · Under Contract · 305 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,025/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$288
• Tax + insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$215
• Net cashflow: $430/mo
• Annual: $5,159/yr
• Cap rate: 15.67%
• Cash-on-cash: 33.50%
• DSCR: 2.49
• 1% rule: 1.86%
• Cash to close: $15,400

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $55k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $430 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $55k).
• It's been on market 305 days — a 12% lower offer ($48k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $48k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($380 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 42/100 on livability (#526 in AR) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Lamar School District (rural): math 32% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #152 of 238 in AR (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 4 active listings in the ZIP; 12 units permitted in Johnson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Johnson County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 4 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $70k (56%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $29k; list at $55k implies a 90% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $15k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 305 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.