72 Hickory Ln

Elkton, MD 21921

$275,000D

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,690 sqft · Built 2001 · Townhouse · Pending · 4 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,420/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,442
• Tax + insurance: −$367
• HOA: −$45
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$508
• Net cashflow: $57/mo
• Annual: $688/yr
• Cap rate: 6.54%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.89%
• DSCR: 1.04
• 1% rule: 0.88%
• Cash to close: $77,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath townhouse listed at $275k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $57 ($688/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $242k (12.0% below list).
• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $242k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#261 in MD) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, cost of living A; Watch: crime F, commute F.
• Cecil County Public Schools (rural): math 15% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #15 of 24 in MD (top 62%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Thomson Estates Elementary (math 8% / reading 10%, grade F, #650 of 860 statewide, top 77%, 481 students, 73% FRL); Elkton Middle (math 6% / reading 25%, grade F, #190 of 225 statewide, top 85%, 523 students, 74% FRL); Elkton High (math 32% / reading 58%, grade D-, #124 of 222 statewide, top 56%, 1,106 students, 62% FRL) — zoned schools average 70% FRL vs 37% district-wide (33 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.3%/yr); 206 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 7d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 563 units permitted in Cecil County in 2024 (330 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 8 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $230k; 20% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 4.1% in Elkton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($86k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.