308 Ryker Ln

Gunter, TX 75058

$1,000,000D-

4 bd · 4.5 ba · 5,776 sqft · Built 2025 · SingleFamily · Pending · 81 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,430/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$5,244
• Tax + insurance: −$1,358
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$510
• Net cashflow: $-4,682/mo
• Annual: $-56,186/yr
• Cap rate: 0.67%
• Cash-on-cash: -20.07%
• DSCR: 0.11
• 1% rule: 0.24%
• Cash to close: $280,000

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/4.5-bath single-family listed at $1.00M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-5k ($-56k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $226k (77.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $243k (75.7% below list).
• It's been on market 81 days — a 6% lower offer ($940k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $226k (77.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $107k of equity ($7k loan paydown + $100k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#236 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Gunter ISD (rural): math 47% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #103 of 826 in TX (top 12%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 201 active listings in the ZIP; 2,272 units permitted in Grayson County in 2024 (750 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Grayson County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 5 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $150k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$172k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 0.7% vs local median 1.8% in Gunter — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 81 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 77% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.