3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,803 sqft ·
Built 1970
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 12 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,971/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,652
Tax + insurance
−$684
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$624
Net cashflow
$11/mo
Annual
$127/yr
Cap rate
6.33%
Cash-on-cash
0.14%
DSCR
1.01
1% rule
0.94%
Cash to close
$88,200
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $315k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $11 ($127/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $297k (5.7% below list).
Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
Recommended offer: $297k (5.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 82/100 on livability (#60 in FL, #988 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-.
Pinellas (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #31 of 73 in FL (top 42%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Zoned schools: Dunedin Elementary School (math 54% / reading 50%, grade C-, #990 of 2,144 statewide, top 48%, 476 students, 74% FRL); Dunedin Highland Middle School (math 53% / reading 52%, grade C+, #213 of 571 statewide, top 38%, 899 students, 53% FRL); Dunedin High School (math 36% / reading 45%, grade F, #294 of 667 statewide, top 44%, 1,203 students, 48% FRL).
Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.2%/yr); 265 active listings in the ZIP; 34 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 10d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,676 units permitted in Pinellas County in 2024 (1,422 in 5+ unit buildings).
Pinellas County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 2.9% in Clearwater — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
At $2,971/mo this rent would consume 57% of the median local household income ($63k/yr) (locally 1511% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Questions for listing agent
Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-Q921A13QY16NHC
· Data 12 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29