3 bd · 1.0 ba ·
1,477 sqft ·
Built 1920
· Townhouse
· Active
· 22 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,672/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,358
Tax + insurance
−$414
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$561
Net cashflow
$339/mo
Annual
$4,070/yr
Cap rate
7.86%
Cash-on-cash
5.61%
DSCR
1.25
1% rule
1.03%
Cash to close
$72,520
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath townhouse listed at $259k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $339 ($4k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $259k).
It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($255k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $255k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
Hamilton Township Public School District (suburban): math 17% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #338 of 472 in NJ (top 72%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
Zoned schools: Greenwood Elementary School (math 12% / reading 32%, grade F, #951 of 1,303 statewide, top 75%, 246 students, 79% FRL); Richard C Crockett Middle School (math 15% / reading 41%, grade F, #335 of 431 statewide, top 79%, 863 students, 51% FRL); Hamilton North - Nottingham (math 14% / reading 52%, grade F, #259 of 399 statewide, top 66%, 1,005 students, 46% FRL) — zoned schools average 59% FRL vs 29% district-wide (30 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: 33 active listings in the ZIP; 26 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,256 units permitted in Mercer County in 2024 (1,303 in 5+ unit buildings).
Mercer County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
Current owner paid $30k; list at $259k implies a 749% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
At $2,672/mo this rent would consume 47% of the median local household income ($68k/yr) (locally 930% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Questions for listing agent
Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-Q95PVQ6TVC53KJ
· Data 11 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29