317 Craig Creek Estates Dr

New Castle, VA 24127

$339,725D

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,184 sqft · Built 1982 · SingleFamily · Active · 240 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,294/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,782
• Tax + insurance: −$329
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$272
• Net cashflow: $-1,088/mo
• Annual: $-13,054/yr
• Cap rate: 2.69%
• Cash-on-cash: -12.88%
• DSCR: 0.43
• 1% rule: 0.38%
• Cash to close: $95,123

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $340k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-13k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $148k (56.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $129k (61.9% below list).
• It's been on market 240 days — a 12% lower offer ($299k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $129k (61.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $36k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $34k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#519 in VA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, crime A, cost of living A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Craig County Public School District (rural): math 45% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #83 of 131 in VA (top 63%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: 30 active listings in the ZIP; 30 units permitted in Craig County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Craig County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts since 10y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $199k; list at $340k implies a 71% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$58k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 240 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 62% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?