4186 Addalyn Way

Valdosta, GA 31632

$283,999D-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,788 sqft · Built 2018 · SingleFamily · Pending · 13 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,015/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,489
• Tax + insurance: −$333
• HOA: −$12
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$423
• Net cashflow: $-243/mo
• Annual: $-2,913/yr
• Cap rate: 5.27%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.66%
• DSCR: 0.84
• 1% rule: 0.71%
• Cash to close: $79,520

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $284k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-243 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $241k (15.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $202k (29.0% below list).
• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $202k (29.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $30k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $28k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#392 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A-; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Lowndes County (rural): math 59% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #8 of 174 in GA (top 5%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Dewar Elementary (math 61% / reading 47%, grade C, #204 of 1,228 statewide, top 17%, 859 students, 50% FRL); Hahira Middle School (math 65% / reading 63%, grade B+, #30 of 470 statewide, top 6%, 859 students, 32% FRL); Lowndes High School (math 69% / reading 51%, grade C+, #14 of 424 statewide, top 3%, 3,201 students, 39% FRL) — zoned schools at 40% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 198 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 896 units permitted in Lowndes County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lowndes County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 3 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$49k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 4.3% in Valdosta — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.