5549 Salmon River Rd

Lowville, NY 13367

$99,900C+

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,009 sqft · Built 1960 · SingleFamily · Active · 158 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $958/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax + insurance: −$97
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$201
• Net cashflow: $136/mo
• Annual: $1,633/yr
• Cap rate: 7.93%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.84%
• DSCR: 1.26
• 1% rule: 0.96%
• Cash to close: $27,972

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $100k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $136 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $96k (4.1% below list).
• It's been on market 158 days — a 12% lower offer ($88k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $88k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $11k of equity ($691 loan paydown + $10k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#490 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A, schools A-, housing A-; Watch: health & safety D, amenities F, commute F.
• Lowville Academy & Central School District (town): math 51% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #345 of 590 in NY (top 58%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 45 active listings in the ZIP; 110 units permitted in Lewis County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lewis County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (17%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $65k; list at $100k implies a 54% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 3.5% in Lowville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 158 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.