3 bd · 1.5 ba ·
1,398 sqft ·
Built 1964
· SingleFamily
· Under Contract
· 10 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,911/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,179
Tax + insurance
−$347
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$401
Net cashflow
$-16/mo
Annual
$-193/yr
Cap rate
6.21%
Cash-on-cash
-0.31%
DSCR
0.99
1% rule
0.85%
Cash to close
$62,972
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $225k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-16 ($-193/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $222k (1.3% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $191k (15.0% below list).
Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
Recommended offer: $191k (15.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 75/100 on livability (#123 in VA, #4,018 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, cost of living A, housing A; Watch: crime F, commute F.
Newport News City Public School District (urban): math 34% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #112 of 131 in VA (top 86%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Hilton Elementary (math 47% / reading 72%, grade B-, #536 of 1,108 statewide, top 51%, 382 students, 91% FRL); Mary Passage Middle (math 38% / reading 53%, grade D+, #268 of 342 statewide, top 80%, 944 students, 87% FRL); Denbigh High (math 32% / reading 65%, grade D, #301 of 319 statewide, top 95%, 1,225 students, 65% FRL) — zoned schools average 81% FRL vs 55% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.9%/yr); 213 active listings in the ZIP; 30 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 522 units permitted in Newport News city in 2024 (458 in 5+ unit buildings).
Newport News County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
Current owner paid $86k; list at $225k implies a 162% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 4.2% in Newport News — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($71k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
Built in 1964 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
CashFlowRE · CFR-QABZXX7NVW49KG
· Data 6 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29