126 Canyon Loop Unit F203

Mount Gilead, NC 27306

$151,000F

1 bd · 2.0 ba · 581 sqft · Built 2016 · SingleFamily · Active · 39 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,291/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$792
• Tax + insurance: −$252
• HOA: −$46
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$271
• Net cashflow: $-69/mo
• Annual: $-833/yr
• Cap rate: 5.74%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.97%
• DSCR: 0.91
• 1% rule: 0.86%
• Cash to close: $42,280

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $151k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-69 ($-833/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $141k (6.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $129k (14.5% below list).
• It's been on market 39 days — a 3% lower offer ($146k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $129k (14.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-0.9%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#58 in NC, #4,548 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Montgomery County Schools (rural): math 29% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #143 of 178 in NC (top 80%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Mount Gilead Elementary (math 27% / reading 32%, grade F, #975 of 1,410 statewide, top 71%, 213 students, 87% FRL); West Middle (math 20% / reading 31%, grade F, #388 of 475 statewide, top 83%, 309 students, 72% FRL).
• Market conditions: 113 active listings in the ZIP; 138 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Montgomery County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 4.8% in Mount Gilead — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 39 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.