631 Masonic Way

Belmont, CA 94002

$6,850,000F

10 bd · 9.0 ba · 10,072 sqft · Built 1964 · MultiFamily · Active · 21 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $39,422/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$35,922
• Tax + insurance: −$8,045
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$8,279
• Net cashflow: $-12,824/mo
• Annual: $-153,885/yr
• Cap rate: 4.05%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.02%
• DSCR: 0.64
• 1% rule: 0.58%
• Cash to close: $1,918,000

Investor read

• This is a 3×2bd/1ba + 6×1bd/1ba + 1×?bd/1ba units multifamily listed at $6.85M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-13k ($-154k/yr) — negative. Per door: $-1k/mo.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $4.58M (33.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $3.94M (42.4% below list).
• It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($6.75M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $3.94M (42.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $474k of equity ($47k loan paydown + $427k appreciation (6.2% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#28 in CA, #1,062 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, employment A+, health & safety A+; Watch: cost of living F.
• Belmont-Redwood Shores Elementary (suburban): math 75% / reading 80% proficiency, ranked #25 of 517 in CA (top 5%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 6% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Central Elementary (math 87% / reading 93%, grade A+, #8 of 1,571 statewide, top 1%, 437 students, 4% FRL); Ralston Intermediate (math 78% / reading 85%, grade A+, #14 of 498 statewide, top 3%, 1,117 students, 4% FRL) — zoned schools at 4% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.6%/yr); 64 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 1,019 units permitted in San Mateo County in 2024 (484 in 5+ unit buildings).
• San Mateo County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 5 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $3.70M; list at $6.85M implies a 85% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$758k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 4.0% vs local median 0.8% in Belmont — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $39,422/mo this rent would consume 232% of the median local household income ($204k/yr) (locally 939% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Built in 1964 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.