19 Rivenburg Ln

Claverack-Red Mills, NY 12534

$319,000D+

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,196 sqft · Built 1970 · SingleFamily · Pending · 154 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,731/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,673
• Tax + insurance: −$469
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$573
• Net cashflow: $15/mo
• Annual: $179/yr
• Cap rate: 6.35%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.20%
• DSCR: 1.01
• 1% rule: 0.86%
• Cash to close: $89,320

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $319k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $15 ($179/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $273k (14.4% below list).
• It's been on market 154 days — a 12% lower offer ($281k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $273k (14.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $34k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $32k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Hudson City School District (town): math 38% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #494 of 590 in NY (top 84%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Hudson High School (math 82% / reading 84%, grade A, #435 of 1,100 statewide, top 40%, 454 students, 57% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 83% at this address vs 42% district-wide (+41 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Hudson City School District average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+10.9%/yr); 161 active listings in the ZIP; 136 units permitted in Columbia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Columbia County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 4 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $31k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $157k; list at $319k implies a 103% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $89k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$55k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 3.9% in Claverack-Red Mills — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 154 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.