8989 Chidsey Hill Rd

Keuka Park, NY 14418

$338,000F

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 2,072 sqft · Built 1940 · SingleFamily · Active · 58 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,443/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,773
• Tax + insurance: −$362
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$303
• Net cashflow: $-995/mo
• Annual: $-11,944/yr
• Cap rate: 2.76%
• Cash-on-cash: -12.62%
• DSCR: 0.44
• 1% rule: 0.43%
• Cash to close: $94,640

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $338k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-995 ($-12k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $162k (52.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $144k (57.3% below list).
• It's been on market 58 days — a 3% lower offer ($328k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $144k (57.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $36k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $34k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#656 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, crime A, cost of living B+; Watch: health & safety D, amenities F, commute F.
• Hammondsport Central School District (rural): math 61% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #305 of 755 in NY (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 15 active listings in the ZIP; 196 units permitted in Steuben County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Steuben County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 9 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $216k; list at $338k implies a 56% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$58k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 2.8% vs local median 1.1% in Keuka Park — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 58 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 57% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.