303 Willow Spgs #303

New Milford, CT 06776

$265,000D

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,025 sqft · Built 1985 · Condo · Under Contract · 18 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,799/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,390
• Tax + insurance: −$442
• HOA: −$398
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$588
• Net cashflow: $-18/mo
• Annual: $-218/yr
• Cap rate: 6.21%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.29%
• DSCR: 0.99
• 1% rule: 1.06%
• Cash to close: $74,200

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $265k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-18 ($-218/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $262k (1.0% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $265k).
• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($261k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $261k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 86/100 on livability (#2 in CT, #371 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living C-, amenities D-.
• New Milford School District (suburban): math 29% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #100 of 153 in CT (top 65%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Sarah Noble Intermediate School (math 30% / reading 42%, grade F, #333 of 553 statewide, top 60%, 756 students, 41% FRL); Schaghticoke Middle School (math 28% / reading 47%, grade F, #112 of 175 statewide, top 66%, 811 students, 36% FRL); New Milford High School (math 33% / reading 62%, grade D, #91 of 194 statewide, top 47%, 1,247 students, 31% FRL) — zoned schools average 36% FRL vs 15% district-wide (21 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 148 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,151 units permitted in Western Connecticut Planning Region in 2024 (714 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 3 sale attempts since 26y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $152k; list at $265k implies a 74% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 3.5% in New Milford — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($104k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.