504 1/2 Empire St

Bayard, NM 88043

$125,000C

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,352 sqft · Built 1960 · SingleFamily · Active · 107 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,211/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax + insurance: −$89
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$254
• Net cashflow: $212/mo
• Annual: $2,545/yr
• Cap rate: 8.33%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.27%
• DSCR: 1.32
• 1% rule: 0.97%
• Cash to close: $35,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $125k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $212 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $121k (3.1% below list).
• It's been on market 107 days — a 9% lower offer ($114k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $114k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-2.3%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#64 in NM) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Cobre Consolidated Schools (town): math 13% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #56 of 95 in NM (top 59%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 92% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Bayard Elementary (170 students, 100% FRL); Snell Middle (239 students, 100% FRL); Cobre High (276 students, 100% FRL).
• Market conditions: 18 active listings in the ZIP.
• Grant County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 107 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.