4 bd · 2.0 ba ·
2,940 sqft ·
Built 1940
· MultiFamily
· Pending
· 184 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$3,529/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,206
Tax + insurance
−$867
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$741
Net cashflow
$715/mo
Annual
$8,581/yr
Cap rate
12.43%
Cash-on-cash
21.90%
DSCR
1.97
1% rule
1.53%
Cash to close
$64,400
Investor read
This is a 2 × 2-bed/1.0-bath units multifamily listed at $230k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $715 ($9k/yr) — positive. Per door: $358/mo.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $230k).
It's been on market 184 days — a 12% lower offer ($202k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $202k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 73/100 on livability (#84 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, cost of living B; Watch: amenities D-, commute D-, health & safety F.
University City (suburban): math 15% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #297 of 324 in MO (top 92%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Zoned schools: Flynn Park Elem. (math 32% / reading 47%, grade F, #537 of 1,115 statewide, top 53%, 324 students, 100% FRL); University City Sr. High (math 5% / reading 52%, grade F, #409 of 521 statewide, top 79%, 726 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 67% district-wide (32 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Zoned-school proficiency averages 34% at this address vs 20% district-wide (+14 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the University City average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $460/mo; built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.6%/yr); 162 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 920 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).
3 sale attempts since 10y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $95k (29%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Current owner paid $196k; 17% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.6% rent growth), your $64k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 12.4% vs local median 4.9% in University City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 184 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
CashFlowRE · CFR-QB66MX0S3J06B5
· Data 3 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29