244 Maegans Way #15

Springfield, FL 32409

$344,990D-

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,000 sqft · Built 2026 · SingleFamily · Active · 25 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,464/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,809
• Tax + insurance: −$575
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$517
• Net cashflow: $-438/mo
• Annual: $-5,251/yr
• Cap rate: 4.77%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.44%
• DSCR: 0.76
• 1% rule: 0.71%
• Cash to close: $96,597

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $345k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-438 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $282k (18.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $246k (28.6% below list).
• It's been on market 25 days — a 2% lower offer ($340k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $246k (28.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $34k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $31k appreciation (9.1% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#826 in FL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D, crime F, amenities F.
• Bay (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #29 of 73 in FL (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Cedar Grove Elementary School (math 18% / reading 18%, grade F, #2,115 of 2,144 statewide, top 99%, 562 students, 76% FRL); Rutherford High School (math 24% / reading 29%, grade F, #489 of 667 statewide, top 74%, 1,337 students, 63% FRL) — zoned schools average 70% FRL vs 48% district-wide (21 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 22% at this address vs 51% district-wide (-29 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Bay average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 301 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,473 units permitted in Bay County in 2024 (559 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Bay County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$54k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.