4388 Smith Acres Ln

Fordoche, LA 70732

$165,000F

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,454 sqft · Built 2012 · Manufactured · Pending · 25 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $921/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax + insurance: −$109
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$193
• Net cashflow: $-247/mo
• Annual: $-2,965/yr
• Cap rate: 4.50%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.42%
• DSCR: 0.71
• 1% rule: 0.56%
• Cash to close: $46,200

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $165k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-247 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $121k (26.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $92k (44.2% below list).
• It's been on market 25 days — a 2% lower offer ($163k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $92k (44.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $5k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#343 in LA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Pointe Coupee Parish (rural): math 21% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #56 of 98 in LA (top 57%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 76% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Valverda Elementary School (math 22% / reading 29%, grade F, #378 of 646 statewide, top 59%, 503 students, 70% FRL); Livonia High School (math 20% / reading 34%, grade F, #136 of 265 statewide, top 55%, 1,010 students, 66% FRL).
• Market conditions: 8 active listings in the ZIP; 60 units permitted in Pointe Coupee Parish in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Pointe Coupee County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $128k; 29% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.