3 bd · 1.0 ba ·
1,399 sqft ·
Built 2025
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 412 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$41,857/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$13,026
Tax + insurance
−$4,140
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$8,790
Net cashflow
$15,901/mo
Annual
$190,807/yr
Cap rate
13.97%
Cash-on-cash
27.43%
DSCR
2.22
1% rule
1.69%
Cash to close
$695,520
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $2.48M.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $16k ($191k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($42k rent vs $2.48M).
It's been on market 412 days — a 12% lower offer ($2.19M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $2.19M (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
In year one you build about $266k of equity ($17k loan paydown + $248k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
Location reads 62/100 on livability (#874 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, schools B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
Bridgehampton Union Free School District (rural): math 50% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #511 of 755 in NY (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Market conditions: 24 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $216k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $696k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$427k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
At $41,857/mo this rent would consume 289% of the median local household income ($174k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 412 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-QDF20Y1RQ0E0DX
· Data 1 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29