45935 Parkway

Big Bear City, CA 92314

$289,999D+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,488 sqft · Built 2007 · Manufactured · Active · 183 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,574/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,521
• Tax + insurance: −$214
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$540
• Net cashflow: $299/mo
• Annual: $3,583/yr
• Cap rate: 7.53%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.41%
• DSCR: 1.20
• 1% rule: 0.89%
• Cash to close: $81,200

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $290k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $299 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $257k (11.3% below list).
• It's been on market 183 days — a 12% lower offer ($255k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $255k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 52/100 on livability (#988 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing B; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Bear Valley Unified (town): math 26% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #289 of 517 in CA (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Fallsvale (math 54% / reading 84%, grade A-, #147 of 1,571 statewide, top 10%, 68 students, 48% FRL); Big Bear Middle (math 20% / reading 37%, grade F, #231 of 498 statewide, top 47%, 503 students, 68% FRL); Big Bear High (math 37% / reading 67%, grade D+, #296 of 1,170 statewide, top 27%, 624 students, 69% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 50% at this address vs 34% district-wide (+16 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Bear Valley Unified average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 464 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 5,458 units permitted in San Bernardino County in 2024 (1,500 in 5+ unit buildings).
• San Bernardino County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 6 sale attempts since 18y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $40k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $125k; list at $290k implies a 132% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.5% vs local median 3.4% in Big Bear City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 183 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.