9440 Bella Mar Trl

Ellenton, FL 34219

$427,000F

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,756 sqft · Built 2026 · Land · Active · 63 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,274/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,239
• Tax + insurance: −$712
• HOA: −$100
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$688
• Net cashflow: $-465/mo
• Annual: $-5,575/yr
• Cap rate: 4.99%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.66%
• DSCR: 0.79
• 1% rule: 0.77%
• Cash to close: $119,560

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath land listed at $427k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-465 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $360k (15.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $327k (23.3% below list).
• It's been on market 63 days — a 6% lower offer ($401k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $327k (23.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#232 in FL, #3,666 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Barbara A Harvey Elementary School (math 74% / reading 59%, grade B+, #473 of 2,144 statewide, top 23%, 1,069 students, 33% FRL); Parrish Community High School (math 47% / reading 57%, grade D+, #160 of 667 statewide, top 25%, 2,017 students, 32% FRL) — zoned schools average 33% FRL vs 51% district-wide (18 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.9%/yr); 2170 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($114k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 63 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.