16611 E 30th Ln

Spokane Valley, WA 99037

$399,950D-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,540 sqft · Built 2026 · SingleFamily · Pending · 69 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,774/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,097
• Tax + insurance: −$667
• HOA: −$93
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$583
• Net cashflow: $-665/mo
• Annual: $-7,983/yr
• Cap rate: 4.30%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.13%
• DSCR: 0.68
• 1% rule: 0.69%
• Cash to close: $111,986

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $400k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-665 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $304k (24.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $277k (30.6% below list).
• It's been on market 69 days — a 6% lower offer ($376k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $277k (30.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 85/100 on livability (#31 in WA, #512 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+.
• Central Valley School District (urban): math 55% / reading 66% proficiency, ranked #55 of 291 in WA (top 19%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Sunrise Elementary (679 students, 24% FRL); Evergreen Middle School (632 students, 36% FRL); Central Valley High School (1,376 students, 42% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.2%/yr); 152 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,608 units permitted in Spokane County in 2024 (1,792 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Spokane County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $50k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Cap rate 4.3% vs local median 3.0% in Spokane Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($88k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 69 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 31% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?