158 Greendale Rd

Catskill, NY 12534

$1,700,000C

8 bd · 5.0 ba · 4,147 sqft · Built 1900 · MultiFamily · Pending · 386 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $15,209/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$8,915
• Tax + insurance: −$1,668
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$3,194
• Net cashflow: $1,432/mo
• Annual: $17,185/yr
• Cap rate: 7.30%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.61%
• DSCR: 1.16
• 1% rule: 0.89%
• Cash to close: $476,000

Investor read

• This is a 8-bed/5.0-bath multifamily listed at $1.70M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($17k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $1.52M (10.5% below list).
• It's been on market 386 days — a 12% lower offer ($1.50M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $1.50M (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $182k of equity ($12k loan paydown + $170k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#483 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, crime B+; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Hudson City School District (town): math 38% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #494 of 590 in NY (top 84%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+10.9%/yr); 161 active listings in the ZIP; 136 units permitted in Columbia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Columbia County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $1.80M (51%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $476k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$292k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 7.3% vs local median 2.9% in Catskill — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $15,209/mo this rent would consume 251% of the median local household income ($73k/yr) (locally 1083% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 386 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.