4810 Cebrian Ave

New Cuyama, CA 93254

$224,900D

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,014 sqft · Built 1953 · SingleFamily · Active · 127 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,593/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,179
• Tax + insurance: −$269
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$334
• Net cashflow: $-190/mo
• Annual: $-2,281/yr
• Cap rate: 5.28%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.62%
• DSCR: 0.84
• 1% rule: 0.71%
• Cash to close: $62,972

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $225k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-190 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $191k (14.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $159k (29.2% below list).
• It's been on market 127 days — a 12% lower offer ($198k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $159k (29.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $4k appreciation (1.9% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 53/100 on livability (#963 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: schools D-, crime F, amenities F.
• Cuyama Joint Unified (rural): math 20% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #1,122 of 1,400 in CA (top 80%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 69% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: built in 1953 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 25 active listings in the ZIP; 719 units permitted in Santa Barbara County in 2024 (217 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Santa Barbara County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 5 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $38k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $179k; 26% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 127 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1953 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?