16919 N Bay Rd #117

Sunny Isles Beach, FL 33160

$199,900B+

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 640 sqft · Built 1979 · Condo · Active · 553 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,543/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax + insurance: −$755
• HOA: −$480
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$744
• Net cashflow: $516/mo
• Annual: $6,189/yr
• Cap rate: 11.95%
• Cash-on-cash: 20.20%
• DSCR: 1.90
• 1% rule: 1.77%
• Cash to close: $55,972

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $200k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $516 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $200k).
• It's been on market 553 days — a 12% lower offer ($176k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $176k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $1k appreciation (0.5% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 86/100 on livability (#20 in FL, #434 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, amenities A+, health & safety A+; Watch: housing C-, cost of living F.
• Miami-Dade (suburban): math 45% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #40 of 73 in FL (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1878 active listings in the ZIP; 10,051 units permitted in Miami-Dade County in 2024 (7,758 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Miami-Dade County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 9y ago; this cycle's ask is 11006% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $155k; 29% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (0.5% appreciation + 0.9% rent growth), your $56k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→28/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 11.9% vs local median 0.8% in Sunny Isles Beach — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $3,543/mo this rent would consume 63% of the median local household income ($67k/yr) (locally 3106% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 553 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?