123 Lark Dr

Seven Lakes, NC 27376

$349,900D

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,030 sqft · Built 2020 · Townhouse · Pending · 210 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,822/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,835
• Tax + insurance: −$304
• HOA: −$118
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$593
• Net cashflow: $-28/mo
• Annual: $-333/yr
• Cap rate: 6.20%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.34%
• DSCR: 0.98
• 1% rule: 0.81%
• Cash to close: $97,972

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $350k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-28 ($-333/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $345k (1.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $282k (19.4% below list).
• It's been on market 210 days — a 12% lower offer ($308k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $282k (19.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#91 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Moore County Schools (rural): math 48% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #58 of 178 in NC (top 33%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: West Pine Elementary (math 51% / reading 58%, grade C, #302 of 1,410 statewide, top 23%, 395 students, 44% FRL); West Pine Middle (math 62% / reading 62%, grade B+, #37 of 475 statewide, top 8%, 688 students, 28% FRL); Pinecrest High (math 66% / reading 72%, grade B, #131 of 535 statewide, top 25%, 2,221 students, 34% FRL).
• Market conditions: 181 active listings in the ZIP; 941 units permitted in Moore County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Moore County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $46k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 52% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 4.0% in Seven Lakes — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 210 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.