3939 Maple St

Kettle River, MN 55757

$109,000C

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,263 sqft · Built 1920 · Other · Pending · 4 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,078/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$572
• Tax + insurance: −$132
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$226
• Net cashflow: $148/mo
• Annual: $1,776/yr
• Cap rate: 7.92%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.82%
• DSCR: 1.26
• 1% rule: 0.99%
• Cash to close: $30,520

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $109k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $148 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $108k (1.1% below list).
• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $108k (1.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($754 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (3.2% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#753 in MN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: crime D+, schools D, employment D.
• Moose Lake Public School District (town): math 40% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #183 of 301 in MN (top 61%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 25 active listings in the ZIP; 126 units permitted in Carlton County in 2024 (22 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Carlton County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $65k; list at $109k implies a 68% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (3.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $31k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.