5800 Weatherburn Ct

Louisville/Jefferson County metro government (balance), KY 40059

$515,000D

5 bd · 3.5 ba · 3,562 sqft · Built 2002 · SingleFamily · Pending · 5 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,287/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,701
• Tax + insurance: −$578
• HOA: −$31
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$900
• Net cashflow: $77/mo
• Annual: $922/yr
• Cap rate: 6.47%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.64%
• DSCR: 1.03
• 1% rule: 0.83%
• Cash to close: $144,200

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $515k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $77 ($922/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $429k (16.8% below list).
• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $429k (16.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $15k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Jefferson County (urban): math 19% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #121 of 165 in KY (top 73%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.8%/yr); 242 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 2,836 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (1,558 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Jefferson County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 2 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $315k; list at $515k implies a 63% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 4.0% in Louisville/Jefferson County metro government (balance) — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($153k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.