3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,600 sqft ·
Built 1980
· Manufactured
· Under Contract
· 37 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,372/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$487
Tax + insurance
−$155
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$288
Net cashflow
$442/mo
Annual
$5,309/yr
Cap rate
12.01%
Cash-on-cash
20.43%
DSCR
1.91
1% rule
1.48%
Cash to close
$25,984
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $93k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $442 ($5k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $93k).
It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($90k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $90k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $642 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 57/100 on livability (#364 in AR) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
Camden Fairview School District (town): math 9% / reading 15% proficiency, ranked #229 of 238 in AR (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Zoned schools: Camden Fairview Early Childhood Center (111 students, 45% FRL); Camden Fairview High School (math 4% / reading 17%, grade F, #271 of 292 statewide, top 93%, 704 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools at 72% FRL track the district average.
Market conditions: 131 active listings in the ZIP; 18 units permitted in Ouachita County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Ouachita County population projected at -33% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
2 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $47k; list at $93k implies a 97% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $26k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 12.0% vs local median 4.9% in Camden — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-QGWW9G0YS8R2WP
· Data 3 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29