Expedition Plan

Fort Worth, TX 76119

$133,900B-

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,580 sqft · Built — · Manufactured · Active · 317 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,853/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$341
• Tax + insurance: −$108
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$389
• Net cashflow: $1,015/mo
• Annual: $12,179/yr
• Cap rate: 25.03%
• Cash-on-cash: 66.92%
• DSCR: 3.98
• 1% rule: 2.85%
• Cash to close: $18,200

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $134k. Condition is rated poor.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $134k).
• It's been on market 317 days — a 12% lower offer ($118k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $118k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $449 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#49 in TX, #1,954 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, crime F.
• Fort Worth ISD (urban): math 18% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #742 of 826 in TX (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 73% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.6%/yr); 187 active listings in the ZIP; 21 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 18,938 units permitted in Tarrant County in 2024 (8,336 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Tarrant County population projected at +41% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 25.0% vs local median 3.9% in Fort Worth — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($51k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 317 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Major: roof — No visible roof
• Major: siding — No visible siding
• Major: landscaping — No visible landscaping