1305 W Elliott St

Breckenridge, TX 76424

$139,200C-

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,936 sqft · Built 1961 · SingleFamily · Active · 48 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,500/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$730
• Tax + insurance: −$502
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$315
• Net cashflow: $-47/mo
• Annual: $-568/yr
• Cap rate: 5.89%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.46%
• DSCR: 0.94
• 1% rule: 1.08%
• Cash to close: $38,976

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $139k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-47 ($-568/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $131k (6.0% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $139k).
• It's been on market 48 days — a 3% lower offer ($135k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $131k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($962 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (1.8% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#695 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D, amenities F, commute F.
• Breckenridge ISD (town): math 36% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #551 of 826 in TX (top 67%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: South El (math 36% / reading 31%, grade F, #2,174 of 4,322 statewide, top 51%, 281 students, 70% FRL) — zoned schools average 70% FRL vs 55% district-wide (15 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.8% of price.
• Market conditions: 118 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2 units permitted in Stephens County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Stephens County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 5 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $78k (36%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (1.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 3.6% in Breckenridge — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 48 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1961 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.