7015 Bogie Ln

Fox Lake, IL 60020

$325,000B-

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,632 sqft · Built 2018 · SingleFamily · Active · 40 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $9,576/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,704
• Tax + insurance: −$642
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,011
• Net cashflow: $5,219/mo
• Annual: $62,629/yr
• Cap rate: 25.56%
• Cash-on-cash: 68.82%
• DSCR: 4.06
• 1% rule: 2.95%
• Cash to close: $91,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $325k. Condition is rated poor.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $5k ($63k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($10k rent vs $325k).
• It's been on market 40 days — a 3% lower offer ($315k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $315k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#247 in IL, #4,462 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, commute A; Watch: amenities D+, health & safety F.
• Richmond-Burton Chsd 157 (rural): math 45% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #161 of 919 in IL (top 18%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Spring Grove Elementary School (math 22% / reading 37%, grade F, #658 of 2,056 statewide, top 35%, 308 students, 0% FRL); Nippersink Middle School (math 30% / reading 51%, grade F, #136 of 665 statewide, top 21%, 385 students, 0% FRL); Richmond-Burton High School (math 37% / reading 37%, grade F, #107 of 693 statewide, top 17%, 549 students, 0% FRL).
• Market conditions: 75 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,595 units permitted in McHenry County in 2024 (485 in 5+ unit buildings).
• McHenry County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 4 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $260k; 25% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $91k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 25.6% vs local median 6.0% in Fox Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 40 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Major: exterior siding — Significant damage and wear
• Major: roof — No visible damage, but photos don't show
• Major: landscaping — Overgrown grass and unkempt appearance