1143 Wallenpaupack Dr

Wallenpaupack Lake Estates, PA 18436

$239,000C-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,072 sqft · Built 1988 · Other · Pending · 38 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,170/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,253
• Tax + insurance: −$278
• HOA: −$195
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$456
• Net cashflow: $-12/mo
• Annual: $-147/yr
• Cap rate: 6.23%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.22%
• DSCR: 0.99
• 1% rule: 0.91%
• Cash to close: $66,920

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $239k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-12 ($-147/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $237k (0.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $217k (9.2% below list).
• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($232k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $217k (9.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $26k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $24k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#896 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, employment A; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Wallenpaupack Area SD (rural): math 39% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #192 of 539 in PA (top 36%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 337 active listings in the ZIP; 177 units permitted in Wayne County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Wayne County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 7 sale attempts since 6y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $16k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $119k; list at $239k implies a 101% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $67k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$41k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 2.4% in Wallenpaupack Lake Estates — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.