6165 Pony Express Trl #43

Pollock Pines, CA 95726

$65,000B-

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 960 sqft · Built 1973 · Manufactured · Active · 37 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,877/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$341
• Tax + insurance: −$108
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$394
• Net cashflow: $1,033/mo
• Annual: $12,400/yr
• Cap rate: 25.37%
• Cash-on-cash: 68.13%
• DSCR: 4.03
• 1% rule: 2.89%
• Cash to close: $18,200

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $65k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $65k).
• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($63k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $63k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $449 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#864 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A-; Watch: crime D, amenities F, commute F.
• Pollock Pines Elementary (town): math 30% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #277 of 517 in CA (top 54%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Pinewood Elementary (math 42% / reading 42%, grade F, #557 of 1,571 statewide, top 38%, 327 students, 48% FRL); Sierra Ridge Middle (math 22% / reading 35%, grade F, #231 of 498 statewide, top 47%, 263 students, 50% FRL); El Dorado High (math 30% / reading 60%, grade D-, #425 of 1,170 statewide, top 37%, 1,224 students, 30% FRL) — zoned schools at 43% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 154 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 0d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 437 units permitted in El Dorado County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• El Dorado County population projected to shrink 3% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 25.4% vs local median 3.8% in Pollock Pines — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.