1138 Aquarius Dr

Wallenpaupack Lake Estates, PA 18436

$899,000B-

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,388 sqft · Built 1977 · SingleFamily · Pending · 18 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $10,000/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,714
• Tax + insurance: −$950
• HOA: −$196
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,100
• Net cashflow: $2,040/mo
• Annual: $24,476/yr
• Cap rate: 9.02%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.72%
• DSCR: 1.43
• 1% rule: 1.11%
• Cash to close: $251,720

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $899k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($24k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($10k rent vs $899k).
• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($886k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $886k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $96k of equity ($6k loan paydown + $90k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#896 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, employment A; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Wallenpaupack Area SD (rural): math 39% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #192 of 539 in PA (top 36%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 337 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 177 units permitted in Wayne County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Wayne County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 6 sale attempts since 10y ago; this cycle's ask is 6% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $478k; list at $899k implies a 88% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $252k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$155k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 9.0% vs local median 2.4% in Wallenpaupack Lake Estates — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
• What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
• Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.