251 W 131st St

New York, NY 10027

$963,200B+

15 bd · 9.0 ba · 3,200 sqft · Built 1910 · MultiFamily · Pending · 88 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $17,270/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$5,051
• Tax + insurance: −$1,255
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$3,627
• Net cashflow: $7,337/mo
• Annual: $88,047/yr
• Cap rate: 15.52%
• Cash-on-cash: 32.94%
• DSCR: 2.47
• 1% rule: 1.79%
• Cash to close: $269,696

Investor read

• This is a 3 × 3-bed/1.5-bath units multifamily listed at $963k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $7k ($88k/yr) — positive. Per door: $2k/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($17k rent vs $963k).
• It's been on market 88 days — a 6% lower offer ($905k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $905k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-1.3%/yr); year-one equity from $7k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#268 in NY, #4,188 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Zoned schools: Elm Tree Elementary School (math 27% / reading 52%, grade F, #1,444 of 2,108 statewide, top 71%, 806 students, 94% FRL); Mark Twain Is 239 For The Gifted And Talented (math 90% / reading 96%, grade A+, #6 of 729 statewide, top 1%, 1,207 students, 44% FRL); Midwood High School (math 94% / reading 96%, grade A+, #83 of 1,100 statewide, top 8%, 4,062 students, 73% FRL).
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; built in 1910 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.7%/yr); 177 active listings in the ZIP; 4,467 units permitted in New York County in 2024 (4,463 in 5+ unit buildings).
• New York County population projected at +21% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 8 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $104k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-1.3% appreciation + 2.7% rent growth), your $270k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 15.5% vs local median 2.6% in New York — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $17,270/mo this rent would consume 348% of the median local household income ($60k/yr) (locally 5635% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 88 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Built in 1910 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?