4405 Rainer Rd

Jacksonville, FL 32210

$129,900B

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,326 sqft · Built 1971 · SingleFamily · Active · 1 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,738/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$681
• Tax + insurance: −$331
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$365
• Net cashflow: $362/mo
• Annual: $4,338/yr
• Cap rate: 9.63%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.93%
• DSCR: 1.53
• 1% rule: 1.34%
• Cash to close: $36,372

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $130k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $362 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $130k).
• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $898 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#50 in FL, #911 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+.
• Duval (urban): math 46% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #48 of 73 in FL (top 66%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.1%/yr); 441 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,503 units permitted in Duval County in 2024 (1,131 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Duval County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Current owner paid $63k; list at $130k implies a 106% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 9.6% vs local median 4.0% in Jacksonville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($61k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.