1500 Palm Valley Dr Dr W #4

Palm Valley, TX 78552

$132,000C

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,237 sqft · Built 1973 · SingleFamily · Active · 48 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,394/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$692
• Tax + insurance: −$250
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$293
• Net cashflow: $159/mo
• Annual: $1,905/yr
• Cap rate: 7.74%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.16%
• DSCR: 1.23
• 1% rule: 1.06%
• Cash to close: $36,960

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $132k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $159 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $132k).
• It's been on market 48 days — a 3% lower offer ($128k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $128k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $913 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#285 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Harlingen CISD (urban): math 25% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #647 of 826 in TX (top 78%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 74% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Dr Hesiquio Rodriguez El (math 27% / reading 37%, grade F, #2,268 of 4,322 statewide, top 55%, 610 students, 64% FRL); Gutierrez Middle (math 26% / reading 31%, grade F, #1,122 of 1,662 statewide, top 69%, 819 students, 71% FRL); Harlingen H S (math 32% / reading 22%, grade F, #1,204 of 1,632 statewide, top 75%, 1,942 students, 82% FRL) — zoned schools at 72% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.9%/yr); 534 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,326 units permitted in Cameron County in 2024 (503 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Cameron County population projected at +3% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 4 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 48 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.